Asian steelmakers are lobbying for global metallurgical coal prices at a third the price in fiscal 2009 as they were in fiscal 2008, when they were a record $300 per metric ton. JFE, Japan’s second-largest steel firm expects prices of coking coal -used to add carbon in iron smelting - to fall back “at least to 2007 levels of $98 per metric tonne.” There are published reports from some analysts suggesting that the trendsetters in Asia are angling for contracts as low as $85 a metric ton.
The benchmark coking coal contracts are set between BHP Billiton of Australia and Japanese and South Korean customers and run until March each year. Chinese mills already are lobbying to change the contracts retroactive to January 1. In North America, most steelmakers settle with their local suppliers on a calendar-year basis.
The 2008 record settlement was driven by high demand for coking coal with global steel production at historically high levels, combined with tight supply conditions. None of those conditions exist in early 2009; in fact, the market now is characterized by a collapse in steel demand and no significant coal (or iron ore) supply disruptions.
However, analyst Jim Lennon at Macquarie Group in London says the consensus market forecast is around $140/metric ton, noting in a report this week that “recent spot deals have been done in the traded market at around that price.” He also notes that Australian coal producers appear reluctant to either move the contracts back to January or settle for anything much below the $150/metric ton price of spot sales in China.
He says he “has been surprised by how stubbornly prices have held to these levels, expecting shipment deferrals and rising stocks to drive spot prices lower. In fact, to this point, Australian suppliers appear to have avoided distressed sales. The question now is whether prices can hold on to these levels for benchmark contract settlements.”
Source: Purchasing.com
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