Chinese coal imports are set to continue to grow strongly for metallurgical as well as thermal coal as demand for electricity and high-quality coal increases, said Peabody Energy Corp. Chief Executive Greg Boyce said Friday at a media conference in Sydney.
"China turning net importer is a structural change. We expect Chinese rapid coal demand growth to continue for some time," said Boyce, who expects "healthy" increases in coal contract prices for the 2010-2011 Japanese financial year starting April 1.
This contract year coking prices settled at US$125 a metric ton and thermal coal prices at US$72/ton.
"There is no question that coal demand is continuing to increase. Spot prices for metallurgical coal are higher than benchmark prices and we are seeing economies starting to recover," Boyce told reporters.
During January-September, China imported nearly 26 million tons of coking coal, up nearly fivefold on the year and coming at a crucial time for miners when coking coal demand in other major countries plummeted. Australia supplied 17.4 million tons of those imports.
Total coal imports to China until September are at nearly 86 million tons, up more than double on the year.
During the first nine months of the year, Peabody has committed nearly 3.3 million tons of coal for China deliveries, including more than 1.7 million tons from its Australian operations.
"It looks to us like (China's) strategy is to satisfy an increasing amount of electricity demand in southern and eastern China from imported coal and to actually keep the coal mined in northern and western China there and convert it in the region," said Boyce.
During the September quarter, the U.S.-based company established a trading hub in Singapore for its expanding trading activities, as well as a representative office in Jakarta.
Peabody has extensive operations in Australia and expects those operations to contribute 30%-40% of earnings over the next two years. It plans to double output to up to 36 million tons over the next five years from existing mines in New South Wales and Queensland.
The bulk of Peabody's output volume comes from its U.S. operations that currently produce about 225 million tons a year.
Third-quarter profit released last month was US$106.8 million, down 71% on sharply lower margins in the Pacific market, but still beating analyst expectations. For 2009, Peabody said it expects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of US$1.2 billion to US$1.3 billion.
Aside from rail and port infrastructure bottlenecks at the Newcastle and Dalrymple ports, Boyce said he was concerned about the Australian government's proposed emissions trading scheme, or ETS, which he said unduly impacts underground "gassy" mines.
"Australia's is the only proposed ETS to include fugitive emissions from coal mines," he said, adding that the company's expansion plans in Australia may be scaled back depending on the eventual shape of the scheme. Other areas in Peabody's focus included Mozambique's nascent coal mining sector, he said.
Australia's parliament is due to vote on the emissions trading scheme in mid-November.
Infrastructure constraints were "always an issue" in Australia but Boyce said he was confident to execute Peabody's expansion plans with current rail and port projects in the works.
In New South Wales, Peabody forms part of the Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group that includes BHP Billiton Ltd. among others, and in September agreed to a coal export plan that could see capacity of Australia's biggest coal export port double to 180 million tons by 2016.
"We're confident that the current commitments match our expansion plans," Boyce said.
Aside from expanding organically in Australia, Peabody said it's "very interested" in Mongolia's Tavan Tolgoi coking coal project.
Last month Mongolia's government signed a significant investment agreement for another giant project, the US$4 billion Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine, expected to act as a blueprint for billions of investment in the country.
"Without an investment agreement on Oyu Tolgoi, nothing on Tavan Tolgoi was going to happen. We're very interested in Tavan Tolgoi. It's early (in the process) and we'd look to do it with a partner," said Boyce. Other bidders for Tavan Tolgoi include BHP Billiton, Brazil's Vale and Chinese companies.
Peabody already has a joint venture in Mongolia, recently spending US$23 million on a 50% interest in a Mongolian joint venture with London-based Polo Resources Ltd.
Source: Marketwatch
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