Wu Chenghou, a senior official within the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, has suggested that the country will remain a net coal importer for the near future. However, he said that he expects imports to shrink this year from last year’s levels.
Wu predicted that China's annual energy demand would reach about five billion metric tons (tonnes) of standard coal. Raw coal demand by 2020 would be 4.53 billion tonnes. With domestic coal resources insufficient to meet demand, China will need to import coal.
Fan Liya from Shanxi Coking Coal Group said that China's coal supply will be short in the first quarter, driving up coal prices in the same period. The second and third quarters will see balanced supply and demand, as China's major coal producer Shanxi province is completing the coal resource integration and new capacities will be put into production in the second half of the year. Coal prices will likely fall slightly during the two quarters. Generally, prices during the year will remain stable with slight rise. Specifically, steam coal prices will stay high but fluctuate largely, while coking coal prices will fluctuate slightly at a high level.
Fan expected China's coal output to exceed 3.3 billion tonnes in 2010, up over 10 percent year on year. The annual coal imports are estimated to surpass 80 million tonnes, lower than that in 2009, while exports will likely reach 30 million tonnes.
Wang Junwei, manager of Sinomet International Corporation's Mines Department, echoed that China's coking coal imports would remain high in 2010, but lower than last year.
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