The good times for India's iron ore exporters seem to have been short-lived. The country exported 12.6 million tonnes of iron ore in February, up 17% year-on-year, but the lowest since the demand revival in December. Prices, too, are back to their November lows of $64 per tonne.
Analysts say that as the Chinese demand is beginning to dry up and no significant up move can be seen in the export numbers or even prices.
An analyst with a domestic research firm said, "This yet again slowdown in Chinese demand is hitting all the countries that export iron ore to China, including India."
The analyst estimates China's iron ore imports will fall by 20-25% during India's fiscal year 2010 (April 1, 2009- March 31, 2010).
In fiscal 2008, India exported 106 mt of ore to China. For the 11 months ending February 2009, the country exported 91.6 mt, recording a marginal growth of 1.3%. Total exports for fiscal 2009 are expected to touch 100 mt.
Data provided by the Federation of Indian Minerals and Industries (Fimi) shows iron ore exports at 13.7 mt and 14.5 mt in December and January, respectively. Both months also recorded handsome year-on-year increases of 38% and 26%, respectively.
Prices too are moving up and down as per demand. In November, iron ore was trading at $64 per tonne, as exports slumped 14% year-on-year to 8.7 mt.
However, demand pick up in December saw spot market rise to $84 per tonne in February.
Now, prices are back at their November lows at $64 per tonne.
Another analyst, also with a domestic brokerage, told DNA, "The outlook for iron ore exports looks weak, as China has stopped buying. Exports are up in December to February due to restocking on the raw material by the Chinese steelmakers. However, it seems the process is over and that's why exports in February, though up, have been the lowest since December."
Source: Daily News And Analysis, Mumbai
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